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La Reserva Federal se prepara para aumentar las tasas de interés ante la persistente inflación
dijous 18 de juny de 2026, per
El reciente discurso de Kevin Warsh, presidente de la Reserva Federal de EE. UU., ha causado un notable eco en los mercados financieros, donde se anticipa que el banco central podría aumentar las tasas de interés en un futuro cercano. Warsh, que fue designado por el ex presidente Donald Trump, en un momento en que este abogaba por tasas más bajas, ha centrado su atención en la lucha contra la inflación, que ha superado el objetivo oficial del 2% durante los últimos cinco años.
Durante una conferencia de prensa, Warsh destacó que «los precios persistentemente altos son una carga para el pueblo estadounidense», pero también enfatizó que «el pasado reciente no tiene por qué ser un prólogo». Hizo hincapié en que los miembros del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto están «sin ambigüedades y de manera unánime» comprometidos con la estabilidad de precios.
La reacción del mercado fue inmediata, con el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a dos años, que refleja las expectativas sobre las decisiones de la Fed, disparándose mientras Warsh hablaba. A su vez, los operadores de futuros comenzaron a especular sobre cuándo se produciría el próximo aumento de tasas, con la probabilidad de un incremento en la reunión del 28-29 de julio subiendo rápidamente a un 33% y al 67% para septiembre.
El mensaje de Warsh y su impacto en el mercado
Asimismo, los traders comenzaron a ajustar sus expectativas para el futuro, anticipando que la política monetaria se mantendría más estricta durante un período prolongado. Las probabilidades de un segundo aumento para septiembre de 2027 superaron el 45%, y las expectativas para mayo de 2031 apuntan a un tipo de interés implícito de 4.78%, sugiriendo hasta cinco aumentos en cinco años desde el rango actual de 3.50%-3.75%.
Un relato popular que indicaba que Warsh había sido enviado a la Fed para facilitar la política monetaria se disipó rápidamente durante su encuentro con los medios, donde, en un tono a veces serio y otras veces más ligero, reiteró su compromiso con la estabilidad de precios. Ed Yardeni, veterano del mercado, expresó su sorpresa ante las declaraciones de Warsh, quien había sido considerado inicialmente como un «paloma» que favorecía la reducción de las tasas debido a su creencia en que la inteligencia artificial podría impulsar la productividad y el crecimiento económico mientras contenía la inflación. Sin embargo, Warsh se presentó como un firme defensor de un mensaje ortodoxo sobre la inflación.
El impacto del discurso de Warsh fue palpable, ya que los índices del mercado de valores experimentaron caídas significativas junto con el aumento en los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro. A pesar de esto, el temor a una Reserva Federal más agresiva se desvaneció el jueves, ya que Wall Street asimiló los resultados de la reunión del FOMC y se centró en desarrollos positivos en el conflicto en Irán y la posibilidad de una reducción en los costos de energía.
A pesar de las preocupaciones sobre la inflación, hay motivos para un optimismo moderado. Aunque los indicadores populares de inflación se encuentran en máximos de varios años, las presiones subyacentes parecen estar disminuyendo, con la inflación subyacente aumentando solo un 0.2% en mayo. Scott Clemons, estratega jefe de inversiones de Brown Brothers Harriman, sugirió que la Fed podría no realizar cambios en las tasas este año, observando la evolución de la dinámica inflacionaria y otros factores.
En el pasado, Warsh ha señalado que es prudente mirar más allá de las interrupciones temporales en la oferta que afectan los precios. Curiosamente, los costos de los commodities han aumentado solo un 6% desde el inicio de la guerra en febrero y han retrocedido desde su pico de mayo en un 17%, según el índice S&P GSCI. Si la inflación se suaviza y los precios de los commodities continúan disminuyendo, esto podría llevar a la Reserva Federal a adoptar una postura más flexible en el futuro.
En resumen, el mensaje de Warsh ha sido tanto tranquilizador como inquietante para los mercados. Por un lado, su firmeza en el tratamiento de la inflación es reconfortante; por otro, su declaración de que los mercados decidirán dónde establecer las tasas, en lugar de tenerlas fijadas con un ojo en lo que la Fed desea, ha generado cierto desasosiego entre los operadores actuales, aunque a largo plazo podría resultar en un alivio.
La entrada La Reserva Federal se prepara para aumentar las tasas de interés ante la persistente inflación aparece primero en LaRepublica.es .
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